Modeling Scenarios for Trade Development between Central Asia and Afghanistan

This document provides a concise strategic summary of the results of a comprehensive study on trade between Central Asia and Afghanistan. It combines economic, institutional, and geopolitical analysis, supplemented by an extended gravity model that allows for quantitative assessment of trade process management and forecasting of development scenarios through 2030.

The study is based on a combination of statistical analysis, expert interviews, and surveys of government agencies, transporters, and exporters in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
These data made it possible to account not only for formal trade indicators but also for real barriers, institutional gaps, and logistical risks that shape the current dynamics of integration.

Mutual trade between the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan today has strategic importance — not only as a driver of economic growth but also as an element of regional resilience. Despite internal challenges, Afghanistan remains a key link in the emerging space of Central and South Asia, where transport, energy, and digital infrastructure are becoming new channels of interaction.